Marvel Studios and Disney had high hopes that “Thunderbolts*” would kick off the summer movie season with a bang, but the numbers tell a more troubling story for the media giant. The film opened to $76 million domestically, which might sound decent at first, but it’s actually on the low end for Marvel movies, which used to regularly pull in at least $100 million on opening weekend. Instead, “Thunderbolts*” finds itself grouped with weaker MCU launches like “Eternals” ($71 million) and “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” ($75 million), both of which were seen as underperformers for the brand.
Globally, “Thunderbolts*” made $162.1 million, with $86.1 million coming from international markets34. But when you adjust for inflation, the opening weekend looks even worse: “Thunderbolts*” only ranks 27th out of 35 MCU films, far behind earlier ensemble movies like “The Avengers” and “Avengers: Infinity War,” which had much stronger debuts in today’s dollars. The much-touted “12th best worldwide opening for an MCU movie” is misleading because it doesn’t account for inflation, making the performance look better than it really is.
Here are all of the MCU films ranked by their inflation-adjusted worldwide opening weekends (in 2025 dollars):
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Avengers: Endgame (2019): $1,406.5M
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Avengers: Infinity War (2018): $736M
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Spider-Man: No Way HomeS (2021): $651.6M
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Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015): $573.8M
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Captain Marvel (2019): $524.4M
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Iron Man 3 (2013): $522.5M
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The Avengers (2012): $518.1M
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Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022): $486M
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Captain America: Civil War (2016): $458.6M
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Black Panther (2018): $426.7M
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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022): $356.4M
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Thor: Ragnarok (2017): $326.4M
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Thor: Love and Thunder (2022): $326.2M
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Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017): $306.5M
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Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023): $303.5M
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Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017): $300.7M
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Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019): $273.7M
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Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014): $249.6M
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Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023): $236.3M
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Thor: The Dark World (2013): $232.2M
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Guardians of the Galaxy (2014): $204.8M
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Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018): $185.2M
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Captain America: Brave New World (2025): $180M
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Iron Man 2 (2010): $179.3M
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Black Widow (2021): $175.4M
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Doctor Strange (2016): $173M
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Thunderbolts* (2025): $162.1M
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Thor (2011): $151.2M
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Ant-Man (2015): $150M
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The Incredible Hulk (2008): $145.1M
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Iron Man (2008): $143.9M
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Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021): $141M
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Eternals (2021): $134.3M
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Captain America: The First Avenger (2011): $132.3M
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The Marvels (2023): $115.5M
The film’s production budget was $180 million, and Disney reportedly spent at least another $100 million on marketing. And since theaters keep 50% or more of box office receipts, a movie usually needs to make about two and a half times its production budget in theaters just to break even, it That means “Thunderbolts*” is going need to hit around $450 million just to begin making a profit. With its current tragectory, there’s a real risk it won’t reach that goal, especially since the last few Marvel movies based on new characters, like “The Marvels” and “Eternals,” fizzled at the box office.
Even with positive reviews (88% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an “A-” CinemaScore from audiences, the opening weekend didn’t quite live up to expectations, especially compared to the franchise’s past hits. It was on the low end of last minute estimates, and while some analysts and industry voices are still trying to spin the results as “above average for the genre,” but these comments ignore inflation altogether, as well as much higher bar set by Marvel’s earlier successes.
Meanwhile, other movies are showing much stronger staying power. For example, “Sinners” made $33 million in its third weekend, dropping only 28% from the previous week and reaching $236 million worldwide so far. In comparison, “Thunderbolts*” faces an uphill battle to justify its massive budget and restore confidence in Marvel’s box office power. “A Minecraft Movie” came in third place this weekend, earning $13.5 million in its fifth week in theaters. So far, the Warner Bros. film based on the popular video game has made a huge $398 million in North America and $873 million worldwide.
Round out the top 5 were Ben Affleck’s action movie “The Accountant 2” with dropped to fourth place with $9.45 million in its second weekend, a big 61% drop from its first, and Sony’s horror film “Until Dawn” stayed in fifth place, earning $3.8 million from 3,055 theaters. That’s a 53% drop from its opening weekend. The bloody survival thriller cost $15 million to make and has earned $14.3 million in North America and $34.7 million worldwide so far.
Obviously Disney is hoping that strong word-of-mouth and critical praise will help “Thunderbolts*” stick around in theaters, but such a soft opening weekend should be a clear warning sign. If Marvel can’t turn things around, it could mean more trouble ahead for Disney’s superhero empire.
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English (US) · 