The hype around The Odyssey may have just run into reality. For weeks, Deadline and other outlets have played it safe, handing out glossy praise and cast photos instead of numbers. Now the projections are here, and they do not look as strong as once promised.
Advance ticket sales are tracking between $30 million and $40 million. That is the spin. Reality check. Recent films like Wicked: For Good cleared $60 million in presales. Deadpool & Wolverine hit $50 million. So where is the breakout signal here? There isn’t one. All those “massive presales” claims do not hold up because they’re limited to the 25 or so 70mm IMAX theaters around the country, but little else.
The opening weekend domestic forecast lands between $85 million and $100 million. It sounds respectable without setting off alarms, but when compared to the next Spider-Man sequel, which is forecast at $150 million to $180 million, that is hype territory. For The Odyssey, they’re now hedging their best because they have to. If this thing opens soft, the receipts will speak for themselves.
At the low end, an $85 million opening would fall below Oppenheimer at $98.7 million. The reason that matters is that this is a bigger budget film with a stacked cast sold and is being sold as an event. Falling short of Oppenheimer is not a win. It’s a warning. So the fallback narrative appears right on cue. If these projections hold, what are we looking at? Not a breakout. Not a phenomenon. More like an overbudget gamble that failed to connect with wide audiences. If the second weekend drops hard, that will confirm it.
This week, from the early reviews to the “reply guys” on social media, there’s been a massive push to insist it is not woke, or that it doesn’t matter if it is, came early, frequent, and loud. Why the pressure campaign? Why the rush to label critics before audiences even show up? That looks a lot less like confidence and more like preloaded, even programmed, excuses.
I mean… pic.twitter.com/QcbmUztrdZ
— WontShutit (@wontshutit) July 14, 2026
The online astroturfing tells its own story. Repeatedly dismiss critics as bad actors. Frame any backlash as political. And so set the stage that if the film stumbles, they can blame the audience. That’s a familiar playbook, but it also suggests the people behind The Odyssey knew this might not land to begin with.
Maybe the team is alreadly looking towards awards season. That stacked cast also happens to be packed with Academy voters. Is there a narrative ready to pivot from box office disappointment to artistic “importance?” Is Elliot going to be nominated as a Best Supporting Actor to make a statement? Is that the endgame here? If so, then box office is not the goal.
Hollywood can spin projections all day. But once tickets sell and seats fill, the truth is simple. People either show up or they don’t. For The Odyssey, the early signs are not encouraging. We’ll know more when it arrives this weekend.
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English (US) · 