Disney seems to be sweating over its next big Star Wars gamble, The Mandalorian and Grogu. According to Variety, the studio is already nervous about whether this “first Star Wars film in nearly seven years” will actually land with anyone other than diehard fans and the folks still buying Baby Yoda pajamas. The movie is directed by Jon Favreau and is set to hit theaters on May 22, 2026, just in time for Memorial Day weekend. That date used to mean something special for Star Wars releases, back when the brand still knew how to excite audiences instead of begging them for another chance.
Inside Disney, the buzz isn’t great. The Super Bowl commercial that mocked the old Budweiser Clydesdale spots fell flat. What was meant to be a cute parody ended up as more proof that the Mouse House has lost its sense of humor. The spot didn’t ignite much chatter, or any real anticipation. Executives are reportedly worried that a film based on a streaming show won’t draw the kind of crowds that the mainline Star Wars films once took for granted. In contrast, Variety says Disney is already far more enthusiastic about Shawn Levy’s Star Wars: Starfighter, starring Ryan Gosling, which hits in 2027 and supposedly “recaptured the franchise’s spirit of fun.”
Translation: they think that one might actually be entertaining for a change.
The Mandalorian and Grogu has faced headwinds from the moment Disney announced it in January 2024. That news landed right after a string of 2023 box office disasters. Instead of bold moves, the studio doubled down on familiar names, trotting out more sequels and spin-offs like Moana 2. It all looked like damage control. Sure, The Mandalorian series was a hit during the early Disney+ years, but viewership slipped with each season, and by the end, even its most loyal fans sounded tired. This new film doesn’t appear to feature any of the legendary characters that draw in casual moviegoers, which means it may be preaching to a shrinking choir.
The first trailer dropped in September 2025 and did little to move the needle. Some viewers saw it as a convenient distraction during Disney’s controversy over pulling Jimmy Kimmel off the air, and the footage itself looked slapped together. The pre-pandemic era trailers for The Force Awakens or Rogue One lit up the internet. By comparison, The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer arrived with a faint whimper. The cutesy Super Bowl spot didn’t change that. The latest trailer, released this February, fetched a somewhat improved reaction, but few seem convinced that this story deserves a big-screen outing.
Take a look:
The Mandalorian and Grogu | Official Trailer | In Theaters May 22
Adapting a TV show into a movie isn’t easy, and the track record is spotty at best. The Simpsons Movie and South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut managed to turn their TV roots into box office gold. Star Trek: The Motion Picture pulled off a comeback a decade after cancellation. But there are plenty of other examples—The X-Files movie from 1998 being one, where loyal fans showed up, but general audiences shrugged. Even HBO’s Entourage couldn’t escape that fate when it tanked in theaters.
Disney should probably be thankful this Mandalorian project is reportedly the cheapest Star Wars production they’ve ever made. That way, when (not if) it underperforms, they can still call any bit of profit a ‘win’ and quietly retreat.
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