Disney and Marvel Studios are hoping that “Thunderbolts*” will kick off the summer box office with a bang, as the film targets a $70 million to $75 million opening weekend in North America and a global debut between $160 million and $175 million. The movie, which brings together a never before seen team-up of unconventional antiheroes like Yelena Belova (Black Widow), Bucky Barnes, and Red Guardian, is set to open in 4,300 theaters domestically and is rolling out simultaneously in key international markets.
While these numbers would have been strong for most films, they’re noticeably softer compared to the heights of previous Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) releases. Captain America: Brave New World opened earlier this year to $88 million domestically, and major titles like Deadpool & Wolverine and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever each soared well above $100 million in their opening weekends. A handful of recent lower tier MCU entries, such as Eternals, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and The Marvels, have started below the $100 million mark. Each of those are arguably also some of the worst offerings in the MCU.
Despite the expected positive early reviews and good presales, Thunderbolts* could even fall short of its modest box office hopes. The MCU has faced a noticeable drop in box office performance since the heights of the Endgame era. Recent releases have struggled to match past successes, with audience excitement and turnout waning for new entries. This trend is reflected in the more modest projections for Thunderbolts*, and even a $75 million opening would be considered underwhelming compared to the franchise’s past.
And unlike the Avengers or Guardians of the Galaxy, the Thunderbolts are not widely recognized outside of comic book circles. And even in the comic shops, readers are quick to point out that this line-up has never been associated with that team. Meanwhile, entertainment industry insiders have noted that these “D-list” characters lack the mainstream appeal of Marvel’s biggest heroes, which could severely limit the film’s ability to draw in casual moviegoers. Disney itself has acknowledged that the characters aren’t as well-known, and this unfamiliarity may dampen audience interest.
Finally, audiences are increasingly showing signs of “superhero fatigue,” after too many formulaic plots and a steady stream of similar movies. Many moviegoers feel overwhelmed by the sheer volume of superhero content and are less motivated to keep up with every new installment, especially when the stories and characters don’t feel fresh or essential. Some have suggested this movie should have been released directly to Disney+, like Black Widow nearly was. This fatigue has contributed to softer openings for recent MCU films and could be a major factor in Thunderbolts* falling short of its box office goals.
While many expect the movie to easily top the box office this weekend as the only major new release, it still faces stiff competition from holdover hits like Sinners, which continues to perform strongly. My recent appearance on Midnight’s Edge in the Morning covered a lot of spoilers and audience reactions for the movie, and I don’t think it will generate the strong word-of-mouth needed to capitalize on those early positive reviews. If it does, then it still could find success in the weeks ahead. However, the combination of declining franchise momentum, unfamiliar characters, and audience fatigue with superhero movies presents real challenges for Marvel’s latest team of antiheroes.
Wow, Thunderbolts is impressively shit. There’s a tiny kernel of a good idea lurking in there with Sentry, buried beneath a mountain of Marvel bullshit.
— The Critical Drinker (@TheCriticalDri2) May 1, 2025
If things are worse than I think, Sinners could hold on to the top slot, which would be a disaster no one at Disney is prepared for. For now, I’m predicting a domestic box office debut this weekend of around $55 million and under $125 million globally.
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English (US) · 