Disney faces a major test at the box office with The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first Star Wars movie to hit theaters in seven years. The film follows a period of declining audience interest across both the big screen and Disney+.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker closed out the sequel trilogy in 2019 with poor to mixed reviews and an even weaker fan response, which many blame on The Last Jedi. After that, Disney shifted focus to streaming. Early success came from The Mandalorian, which drew strong viewership in its first two seasons and helped steady the brand.
That momentum did not last. Several follow-up series saw drops in audience engagement. The Book of Boba Fett and Obi-Wan Kenobi both opened with attention but struggled to keep viewers. Data trends during Obi-Wan Kenobi showed declining interest across its short run, with a late spike tied to the final Darth Vader confrontation.
Andor launched to lower initial viewership compared to earlier shows, suggesting some audience hesitation. The series later gained praise and stronger word of mouth, which helped it recover by the end of its season. Ahsoka also opened with solid numbers, but viewership dropped sharply after its first two episodes. Reports indicated that only about half the initial audience returned for episode three, and the show did not regain that early momentum.
The downward trend continued with The Acolyte, which drew weak reviews and struggled to gain traction. The lesbian witches focused series frequently failed to appear in Nielsen’s Top 10 streaming rankings, a key benchmark for measuring audience reach. No wonder it did not get a second season. It lost them a lot of money, and likely harmed the other Disney+ Star Wars show no one talks about at all; Skeleton Crew.
Now Disney is betting on a theatrical return tied directly to its streaming success. The Mandalorian and Grogu serves as a continuation of the Disney+ series rather than a standalone film. That creates even more risk. The last season of The Mandalorian aired three years ago, and its peak popularity dates back much earlier, at nearly six years.
Marketing efforts have also raised questions about direction. Actor Pedro Pascal recently drew attention for a viral late-night television appearance, but it remains unclear whether such moments translate into ticket sales among core Star Wars fans. It seemed forced and simply designed to heat up a culture war battle by upsetting conservatives and recruiting progressives to support the movie, similar to how One Battle After Another did last year, and it appears Christopher Nolan is attempting to do with The Odyssey.
On-brand for Hollywood these days https://t.co/5708HSxzrp
— Bleeding Fool (@BleedingFool) May 14, 2026
Merchandise tied to Grogu, also known as Baby Yoda, continues to perform strongly, including high-end collectibles that recently sold out. Disney may be counting on that character’s appeal alone to drive interest. Still, strong toy sales don’t always lead to box office success. I’m not even sure that a rumored Cara Dune cameo appearance could help this movie’s box office, although it might produce a lot more goodwill than Pedro Pascal making out with Stephen Colbert.
The performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu will likely signal whether Star Wars can regain its footing in theaters or if the franchise faces deeper audience fatigue.
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