Supergirl is set to hit North American theaters on June 26, 2026, but new box office tracking suggests the second film in James Gunn’s rebooted DC Universe may be losing momentum at a critical moment.
Analytics firm BoxOfficeTheory lowered its opening weekend projection on June 13 to a midpoint of $51 million, with a range between $47 million and $58 million. Boxoffice Pro issued a similar estimate of $45 million to $55 million. Those numbers place the film close to the $55 million debut of The Flash in 2023, a result Warner Bros. has spent years trying to move past.
The comparison is difficult to ignore. Gunn’s Superman opened to $122 million domestically in 2025 and reached about $618 million worldwide. BoxOfficeTheory now projects Supergirl top out at about $125 million… total in North America, which matches what Superman made in its first weekend alone.
That gap puts pressure on the studio’s broader DC strategy. A $51 million opening would rank as the weakest launch for the new DCU so far and raises questions about whether the franchise can sustain audience interest beyond its flagship hero.
Deadline reports the film carries a net production cost of $175 million and could reach profitability at around $315 million worldwide. That figure is lower than the typical industry break-even point, which often lands near $437 million using standard formulas. The reduced threshold suggests Warner Bros. may have adjusted its distribution or financing structure.
Even so, the margin for error is thin, and recent quotes from star Milly Acock’s press tour may not be helping. Current projections suggest a global total between $250 million and $350 million, depending heavily on international performance. That leaves little room for underperformance overseas.
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Behind the scenes, the film’s production history points to a more complicated picture. Reports from World of Reel indicate multiple test screenings, alleging they’d heard there were up to 10, but we have at least three confirmed. Apparently each round brought changes, including three different endings as well a shift in composers from Ramin Djawadi to Tom Holkenborg and finally Claudia Sarne.
The runtime also changed significantly. An early 2026 cut ran 2 hours and 5 minutes without credits. The final version is 1 hour and 47 minutes including credits. That reduction reflects months of adjustments as the release date approached.
One of the most notable changes involved adding more screen time for David Corenswet’s Superman. Later test screenings included new scenes featuring the character, even as the overall runtime was trimmed. Corenswet’s version of Superman remains the DCU’s strongest commercial asset after the success of Superman.
This strategy suggests Warner Bros. is leaning on a proven character to support a newer one. Milly Alcock’s Supergirl has reportedly tested well with audiences, but the added focus on Superman signals concern about whether the character can carry a major release on her own.
Early ticket sales added some optimism, with initial pre-sales reportedly outpacing similar female superhero movie The Marvels by about 2.5 times during the first 48 hours. However, The Marvels went on to open at an abysmal $46 million and became a box office bomb. Updated tracking shows Supergirl trending downward since tickets went on sale. The shorter pre-sale window may also be a factor. Tickets became available about three weeks before release, which is tighter than usual for a major franchise film. That limits data and reduces the runway for building strong advance sales.
Warner Bros. has already committed to the character’s future. Milly Alcock is expected to return in Superman: Man of Tomorrow, scheduled for 2027, according to Variety, so that decision locks in long-term plans regardless of how Supergirl performs in its opening weekend.
For now, the film’s outlook is looking like worse that The Flash numbers. Extensive reshoots may have been a careful effort to improve an already solid product, but could also point to a production that is struggling to find a clear identity. With opening day approaching, the first wave of reviews and audience reactions will likely determine whether the DCU builds momentum or faces new doubts about its future.
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